Global production of animal-based proteins is expected to continue growing in 2026, albeit at a more moderate pace, according to the latest report by RaboResearch, the research division of commodity-focused bank Rabobank. The study outlines an uneven outlook across species, with poultry and aquaculture leading growth, while pork and beef production are set to decline.
If these forecasts materialise, the combined output of the main terrestrial species would record its first contraction in six years, signalling a shift in the global animal protein cycle.
The report attributes this slowdown to a combination of cyclical and structural factors, including adjustments in livestock markets in North America and Brazil, as well as the ongoing rebalancing of China’s pork sector. These dynamics are compounded by a challenging industrial environment marked by high costs, tight margins and increasing volatility driven by trade policies, tariffs and protectionist tensions, alongside the impact of animal diseases such as African swine fever and avian influenza.
RaboResearch also highlights changing consumer behaviour, with buyers becoming increasingly price-sensitive and more willing to switch between protein sources depending on relative cost. In parallel, the report notes that the growing use of pharmaceuticals such as GLP-1 agonists could influence dietary patterns, affecting animal protein categories in different ways.
Despite ongoing disruptions, international trade has demonstrated notable resilience. According to the analysis, trade flows have been sustained in part through the strategic front-loading of shipments in key markets. Nevertheless, Rabobank expects supply-demand imbalances to persist throughout 2026, further shaped by geopolitical tensions and evolving global trade policies.
Animal health will remain a critical challenge for the sector. In addition to existing diseases, emerging threats such as the New World screwworm and bluetongue are increasing pressure on biosecurity systems and driving the need for new management tools, although their implementation remains complex.
In this context, sustainability and technology are emerging as key levers to improve efficiency and risk management. The report underlines the potential of artificial intelligence to enhance traceability and transparency across supply chains, while cautioning that investment levels in innovation remain insufficient.
From a regional perspective, RaboResearch forecasts declines in beef production in North America and a contraction of pork output in China. In Europe, pork production growth is expected to slow, while poultry may begin to recover despite ongoing sanitary risks. Brazil, meanwhile, is once again positioned as a major driver of global trade, with expectations of new export records.
According to RaboResearch, the sector enters 2026 facing the need to advance in diversification, consolidation and technological integration in order to respond to a more volatile market and increasingly demanding consumers.
